Electric Cars

I heard of Tesla Motors for the first time in 2011. Now they're the new Apple in terms of follower loyalty.

I really, really WANT to believe that cars will become electric ASAP, but it's going to take a while yet. But I believe Tesla will be the Bredbandsbolaget of Electric Cars, the catalyst of the change.

Trends:
- Battery prices are going down steadily.
- Battery supply capacity is increasing fast (Gigafactory).
- Manufacturing automation and 3D printing is advancing fast.
- Cars will be our first robots, not humanoid robots.
- Cars are learning to drive autonomously.
- Companies like Uber are ready to kill the owned car paradigm completely, replacing it with autonomous car fleets in urban areas (no parking, no maintenance, no commute time spent holding the wheel - it's so convenient it's inevitable).
- Environmentalism is spreading, either voluntarily like in Sweden, or forced by smog and health issues like in China.

Negative trends:
- Regulation is slow regarding autonomous cars.
- The ethics question isn't resolved yet, though Volvo as a first claimed that the manufacturer should be responsible for accidents caused by autonomous cars.
- It will take time to build out the charging ecosystem for electric cars.
- The charging of the car takes much longer than tanking gasoline - this one isn't so easily overcome.

Even so, I predict an exponential electric car growth once the price reaches the tipping point and electric cars become cheaper. Forward-looking countries are subsidizing today (Norway in particular stands out).

By 2020, 1% of new cars sold in Sweden will be electric. By 2030, 20%. By 2040, 50%. Will this happen?

By 2020, no autonomous car will have a driver's permit yet. By 2030, Google and one other company will have a permit. By 2040, autonomous cars will represent over 33% of all cars in Sweden.