Internet applications develop much faster than Telecom standards and adoption via social networks is extremely fast, millions of users in weeks.
It seems likely that to cut infrastructure costs, future telecom operators will build LTE-data-only networks, and simply skip providing voice calls, SMS, MMS, USSD etc via traditional telecom protocols and core network services. Just provide data. Good, fast, reliable data with good coverage and understandable tariff models and reasonable usage limits. Nothing else. No frills.
Why not just pre-install all their phones with nice, customized apps for:
- Skype
- WhatsApp
- Facebook
- Gmail
And then of course negotiate a small revenue share deal with each of these providers for the service of gaining them new users, to capitalize in some way of the value "lost" by not providing the traditional telco cash cow services of voice and SMS.
These are really ridiculously priced and the only reason they continue to be so is due to the fact that telcos have a global well-known addressing mode: The phone number. But the e-mail address, or Facebook account, works just as well and the number of users is rapidly increasing. Also, the phone number is hard to remember.
We should be seeing such operators within the next few years, but of course all legacy operators will do whatever they can to block their entry.
Prediction: By 2015, Europe will have several (>= 5) minor operators using this business model. By 2020, most (> 50%) European operators will use this business model.
Update 2016: LTE is growing rapidly (see e.g. https://gsmaintelligence.com/research/2015/02/4g-deployments-and-connections-gather-pace/476/) but the network building cost is so high that new entrants are few and far between. The existing operators have extended their existing networks to also include LTE. We still don't see GSM shutdowns, but they will come. VoLTE will preserve voice as a special telco service for the foreseeable future. P2P SMS is nearly dead in developed countries, but SMS for A2P keeps growing. I think the prediction was too bold and has met with too much resistance from operators struggling to not become bitpipes. I no longer believe that this will happen by 2020. Maybe by 2030.
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