Gold just keeps going up, up, up. Why?
1) All other things equal, it retains its value as currencies suffer from inflation -> its value should increase at least by inflation every year.
2) It is perceived as the most safe investment imaginable when the global economy is troubled.
3) It has been going up for a long time now and lots of investors use momentum.
Of these, 1) is a mathematical fact. 3) is a psychological fact. The thing I'm not so sure about is 2). Why is gold seen as a safe investment? Looking at the price rise, to me it is obvious that gold is already WAY above its "intrinsic value", having been blown out of proportion by speculative investments (or panicked "safe haven" investments). But what would happen if the entire world decides that copper is the new gold tomorrow? Or silver? Or platinum? Or that we should all just use glass and plastic jewelry?
I believe gold prices are seriously inflated and will bubble down sharply "eventually". However, for that to happen there must exist some other attractive option for investment/speculative money. Right now that's difficult to see: I hear that investors are recently PAYING to "invest" in Swiss bonds (at a negative interest rate). Swedish and German bond interests are at record lows. So what could trigger it?
1) Solid stock market recovery.
2) Solid bond market recovery.
I don't really see anything else. Not commodities, because rising commodity prices cause problems for the economy and will just cause even more people to buy gold.
The European debt situation must be resolved before these things can happen. The US economy as well, but Europe is the true bad guy as I see it. Europe must:
1) Accept lower living standards, in particular in pensions and health care.
2) Accept tougher working conditions to compete with Asia. This can mean lower wages, more hours worked, less benefits, whatever. But this is something which is already facing Europe and it will just get worse and worse the coming years.
3) Accept either a split of the EU or a much closer union where there are money transfers between countries (euro-bonds for example, or a fiscal union), just as there are money transfers between regions inside a country today. The latter is already happening de facto with the "rescue funds" for the PIGS countries, but it's a hard sell in the net contributor countries. Remains to see where the limit is.
4) Punish corruption, in particular in government finances, much harsher.
The above are not simple things. They will take a long time to accomplish. Surely 5-10 years. Does that mean that gold prices will rise for 5-10 years more? Logically yes, but somehow it just doesn't feel like the rise can keep on going for that long.
Prediction: Gold prices will peak around the end of 2013, and will then drop off by over 30%. Based on a gut feeling, not on any hard data.
Update 2016: The peak was during 2012 at 1669 USD/troy ounce, during 2015 it was down to 1160 USD/troy ounce. It's likely we will see it rising again, let's guess it will reach its 2012 peak again by 2020.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Swedish housing market crash
Swedish housing prices have risen faster than net income for many years now, in particular in the bigger cities. This is not a sustainable development; extrapolating the curves eventually households would pay 100% of their net income in living costs.
Stock markets are more volatile than ever, which generates uncertainty. Previous stock market crashes, in particular the one 2000-2002, did not affect housing prices much. The one 2008 did but only temporarily and to a small extent. The currently ongoing stock market crash (August 2011) seems poised to hit housing prices harder. Why? I'm guessing it is a combination of various factors:
1) Household loans are at record levels
2) People have been taking loans at record low interest levels for many years now
3) Interest rates are going up (for now, let's see when the debt crisis advances...)
4) New regulations on household loans make market entry harder
5) Media have been raving about household prices going down for over half a year now
6) People have upped their household loans to finance other types of consumption (cars, renovation, travelling, etc)
7) When stock markets go down, private fortunes go down, people feel poorer, and will settle for less when buying new houses
The fact that we see more and more "accept prices" in real estate is a sure-fire factor of how desperate the real estate agents have become to keep up their business. I like them; I hope they are here to stay. The biggest purchase of one's life should be as transparent as possible.
Painful as it will be, a crash will be good in the long term. It is ridiculous that it is impossible for young people starting their working career to buy even a small apartment in Stockholm today. Let alone rent one... We should have market rents. It will be painful for many households who will end up with bad debts, but that pain is outweighed by the fact that the housing market as a whole will become more accessible.
(Yes, I am an apartment owner myself. It will affect me negatively too. But I can take it.)
Prediction: - 20-30% in Stockholm for "bostadsrätter" by the end of 2012. Based on gut feeling, not on any hard statistics.
Update 2016: No way, it's just kept on going up, up, up! Prices have risen way faster than income for the last 15 years straight. There's a low supply/high demand situation in the bigger cities which still isn't abating. A crash would be good for Sweden long term. Let's see if one comes by 2020. I still believe it will happen.
Stock markets are more volatile than ever, which generates uncertainty. Previous stock market crashes, in particular the one 2000-2002, did not affect housing prices much. The one 2008 did but only temporarily and to a small extent. The currently ongoing stock market crash (August 2011) seems poised to hit housing prices harder. Why? I'm guessing it is a combination of various factors:
1) Household loans are at record levels
2) People have been taking loans at record low interest levels for many years now
3) Interest rates are going up (for now, let's see when the debt crisis advances...)
4) New regulations on household loans make market entry harder
5) Media have been raving about household prices going down for over half a year now
6) People have upped their household loans to finance other types of consumption (cars, renovation, travelling, etc)
7) When stock markets go down, private fortunes go down, people feel poorer, and will settle for less when buying new houses
The fact that we see more and more "accept prices" in real estate is a sure-fire factor of how desperate the real estate agents have become to keep up their business. I like them; I hope they are here to stay. The biggest purchase of one's life should be as transparent as possible.
Painful as it will be, a crash will be good in the long term. It is ridiculous that it is impossible for young people starting their working career to buy even a small apartment in Stockholm today. Let alone rent one... We should have market rents. It will be painful for many households who will end up with bad debts, but that pain is outweighed by the fact that the housing market as a whole will become more accessible.
(Yes, I am an apartment owner myself. It will affect me negatively too. But I can take it.)
Prediction: - 20-30% in Stockholm for "bostadsrätter" by the end of 2012. Based on gut feeling, not on any hard statistics.
Update 2016: No way, it's just kept on going up, up, up! Prices have risen way faster than income for the last 15 years straight. There's a low supply/high demand situation in the bigger cities which still isn't abating. A crash would be good for Sweden long term. Let's see if one comes by 2020. I still believe it will happen.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Videostreaming and P2P separate from other data traffic
Videostreaming and file sharing are by their very nature different from other types of Internet traffic. They grow and grow. Operators pay more and more in network infrastructure to keep up with demand for "unlimited" data plans.
I'm guessing that within 5-10 years (=2016-2021 timeframe), these types of traffic will have developed into a separate part of "Internet access" with different policies, quotas and tariffs.
We'll see if I'm right.
Update 2016: The first occurrences of "sponsored data" are appearing. 3 in Sweden are giving away free music streaming. Verizon and AT&T are working on sponsored data, as are Telefónica. The net neutrality debate is still raging, however. The basic issues is kickback, will network owners be able to charge content providers for use of their transport, or not? That is still not settled, but the sponsored data initiatives are moves in that direction. File sharing is not as big as it used to be. Video is growing faster than ever. But it's still not a separate quota. Not sure if we're on track for this one.
I'm guessing that within 5-10 years (=2016-2021 timeframe), these types of traffic will have developed into a separate part of "Internet access" with different policies, quotas and tariffs.
We'll see if I'm right.
Update 2016: The first occurrences of "sponsored data" are appearing. 3 in Sweden are giving away free music streaming. Verizon and AT&T are working on sponsored data, as are Telefónica. The net neutrality debate is still raging, however. The basic issues is kickback, will network owners be able to charge content providers for use of their transport, or not? That is still not settled, but the sponsored data initiatives are moves in that direction. File sharing is not as big as it used to be. Video is growing faster than ever. But it's still not a separate quota. Not sure if we're on track for this one.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Skip keyboard / mouse / monitor
Computers, handheld devices, wireless. All are evolving so fast now. Services like Google Maps (or hitta.se) are incredibly useful.
But we can't access them when we want to. Apple is showing where the problem is, first with iPhone (bigger screen, yay!) and now recently with iPad (even bigger screen, yay again!). But the iPad doesn't fit in your pocket. The iPhone does. So somewhere in between those two lies a limiting factor of screen size vs portability. Can't have both.
What about a foldable electronic-paper-type screen? That could solve the portability vs size issue, but it's still not good for notifications. Whenever I use my computer, it notifies me about a bunch of stuff: I get new mail, RSS feeds, Facebook comments, twits, Skype, whatever.
What if the foldable paper is combined with a little in-ear bluetooth gadget which goes Ping! when something interesting happens? That could work, it's simple enough, but it's still just a notification - it's not the information itself.
I think the only solution is glasses, just like the sci-fi guys have been saying for decades. There are already models out there for commercial use, but they're clunky. They need to be nearly as light as a pair of sunglasses. And their major advantage is of course that they support Augmented Reality, for example like the information accessible to the British police in Charles Stross novel "Halting State". We already have this kind of overlay e.g. in helmets for air force pilots. We've had it in "HUDs" in computer games for ages.
But that's just the screen part. How to input data? Before we get to a point where we can think words directly into hardware, which will probably take even longer, we'll need some other interface which involves fingers. Speech is imprecise and cumbersome; it's like using "vi" for editing: Now I'm telling the device what to do, now I'm just asking where the gluten-free bread is in the supermarket. It forces two contexts on the speaker and that's not user-friendly.
Maybe the Sixthsense idea of Pranav Mistry is a viable way forward. I really like his thinking. It's simple: A camera, a projector, and a mirror. And your own hands. If the projector gets useful enough it could potentially be a rival for glasses, as far as a screen goes.
Obstacles are:
- Miniaturization, as always. Whatever this is, it can't be cumbersome to wear.
- Energy: We need cheap, small, rechargeable energy sources for commercial use.
- Input interface: Either gestures, projected keyboard. They're both possible, the trick is to make them user-friendly enough for a mass market to bother learning the new paradigm.
- Economy: As always, the things must be cheap. Like a mobile phone or cheaper.
When will people interact with the Internet without monitors, keyboards, or mice in their everyday life? This will probably take a while... I'm guessing 2025. Will This Happen?
Update 2016: VR was the biggest topic at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona this year. Oculus Rift, Samsung, Google and Microsoft are all marketing VR/AR goggles. I believe they will hit the trough of disappointment one more time before taking off, but we are still on track for 2025!
But we can't access them when we want to. Apple is showing where the problem is, first with iPhone (bigger screen, yay!) and now recently with iPad (even bigger screen, yay again!). But the iPad doesn't fit in your pocket. The iPhone does. So somewhere in between those two lies a limiting factor of screen size vs portability. Can't have both.
What about a foldable electronic-paper-type screen? That could solve the portability vs size issue, but it's still not good for notifications. Whenever I use my computer, it notifies me about a bunch of stuff: I get new mail, RSS feeds, Facebook comments, twits, Skype, whatever.
What if the foldable paper is combined with a little in-ear bluetooth gadget which goes Ping! when something interesting happens? That could work, it's simple enough, but it's still just a notification - it's not the information itself.
I think the only solution is glasses, just like the sci-fi guys have been saying for decades. There are already models out there for commercial use, but they're clunky. They need to be nearly as light as a pair of sunglasses. And their major advantage is of course that they support Augmented Reality, for example like the information accessible to the British police in Charles Stross novel "Halting State". We already have this kind of overlay e.g. in helmets for air force pilots. We've had it in "HUDs" in computer games for ages.
But that's just the screen part. How to input data? Before we get to a point where we can think words directly into hardware, which will probably take even longer, we'll need some other interface which involves fingers. Speech is imprecise and cumbersome; it's like using "vi" for editing: Now I'm telling the device what to do, now I'm just asking where the gluten-free bread is in the supermarket. It forces two contexts on the speaker and that's not user-friendly.
Maybe the Sixthsense idea of Pranav Mistry is a viable way forward. I really like his thinking. It's simple: A camera, a projector, and a mirror. And your own hands. If the projector gets useful enough it could potentially be a rival for glasses, as far as a screen goes.
Obstacles are:
- Miniaturization, as always. Whatever this is, it can't be cumbersome to wear.
- Energy: We need cheap, small, rechargeable energy sources for commercial use.
- Input interface: Either gestures, projected keyboard. They're both possible, the trick is to make them user-friendly enough for a mass market to bother learning the new paradigm.
- Economy: As always, the things must be cheap. Like a mobile phone or cheaper.
When will people interact with the Internet without monitors, keyboards, or mice in their everyday life? This will probably take a while... I'm guessing 2025. Will This Happen?
Update 2016: VR was the biggest topic at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona this year. Oculus Rift, Samsung, Google and Microsoft are all marketing VR/AR goggles. I believe they will hit the trough of disappointment one more time before taking off, but we are still on track for 2025!
Ubiquitous self-bio-monitoring
We can take EKG, EEG, pulse, tension, and a lot of other measurements. We have lie detectors. We can test ourselves for blood sugar rates. We have the idea of neurofeedback. We've had Polar pulse meters for a long time.
We have also had a clear miniaturizing trend for a long time, and we're starting to make more and more things able to communicate wirelessly.
With all this stuff going on, it feels logical that we'll eventually have a portable self-meter device which can give us constant feedback on our physical (and eventually brain?) state.
First, because it's fun to know. Second, because it can help significantly to maintain a healthy lifestyle, and with the current trend towards obeseness in the world that's sorely needed. And of course, it can be integrated with medical care to enable remote monitoring of patients, providing a detailed log on entering a hospital, or what have you.
I see three four big issues to overcome:
- Integrity; the persistent log of the information must be very secure, as would any wireless publication interface (e.g. sending signals from a monitor to a mobile phone). It would probably not be desirable if our insurance company got their hands on the info, for example. (Or would it - is it correct/ethical to withhold things from your insurance company?)
- Interface: How to present the information in a way which is unintrusive but "always-on"? Visual, aural, ...? Send to mobile phone, show in augmented-reality goggles, beep in ear, or what? The mobile phone feels like the most obvious short-term solution.
- Miniaturization: For this to really become popular, the detector component must be small enough to be carried without discomfort; a wrist watch or so. How to fit all the required components into there? Or further on, when we get that far, the various detectors could just be implanted in suitable places in the body. If so, it would be very nice with batteries that can be recharged via induction. Like my electric toothbrush. Or via kinetic energy.
- Economy: Can this be manufactured for a suitably low cost and in a presentation package which makes it attractive to the general public?
What's a likely timespan for every man's gadgets like this to appear... 10 years? Let's aim for 2020. Will This Happen?
Update 2016: Fitbit, Garmin, Polar, etc and sensors in mobile phones are now becoming mainstream. We're making good progress!
We have also had a clear miniaturizing trend for a long time, and we're starting to make more and more things able to communicate wirelessly.
With all this stuff going on, it feels logical that we'll eventually have a portable self-meter device which can give us constant feedback on our physical (and eventually brain?) state.
First, because it's fun to know. Second, because it can help significantly to maintain a healthy lifestyle, and with the current trend towards obeseness in the world that's sorely needed. And of course, it can be integrated with medical care to enable remote monitoring of patients, providing a detailed log on entering a hospital, or what have you.
I see three four big issues to overcome:
- Integrity; the persistent log of the information must be very secure, as would any wireless publication interface (e.g. sending signals from a monitor to a mobile phone). It would probably not be desirable if our insurance company got their hands on the info, for example. (Or would it - is it correct/ethical to withhold things from your insurance company?)
- Interface: How to present the information in a way which is unintrusive but "always-on"? Visual, aural, ...? Send to mobile phone, show in augmented-reality goggles, beep in ear, or what? The mobile phone feels like the most obvious short-term solution.
- Miniaturization: For this to really become popular, the detector component must be small enough to be carried without discomfort; a wrist watch or so. How to fit all the required components into there? Or further on, when we get that far, the various detectors could just be implanted in suitable places in the body. If so, it would be very nice with batteries that can be recharged via induction. Like my electric toothbrush. Or via kinetic energy.
- Economy: Can this be manufactured for a suitably low cost and in a presentation package which makes it attractive to the general public?
What's a likely timespan for every man's gadgets like this to appear... 10 years? Let's aim for 2020. Will This Happen?
Update 2016: Fitbit, Garmin, Polar, etc and sensors in mobile phones are now becoming mainstream. We're making good progress!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)