Swedish housing market crash

Swedish housing prices have risen faster than net income for many years now, in particular in the bigger cities. This is not a sustainable development; extrapolating the curves eventually households would pay 100% of their net income in living costs.

Stock markets are more volatile than ever, which generates uncertainty. Previous stock market crashes, in particular the one 2000-2002, did not affect housing prices much. The one 2008 did but only temporarily and to a small extent. The currently ongoing stock market crash (August 2011) seems poised to hit housing prices harder. Why? I'm guessing it is a combination of various factors:
1) Household loans are at record levels
2) People have been taking loans at record low interest levels for many years now
3) Interest rates are going up (for now, let's see when the debt crisis advances...)
4) New regulations on household loans make market entry harder
5) Media have been raving about household prices going down for over half a year now
6) People have upped their household loans to finance other types of consumption (cars, renovation, travelling, etc)
7) When stock markets go down, private fortunes go down, people feel poorer, and will settle for less when buying new houses

The fact that we see more and more "accept prices" in real estate is a sure-fire factor of how desperate the real estate agents have become to keep up their business. I like them; I hope they are here to stay. The biggest purchase of one's life should be as transparent as possible.

Painful as it will be, a crash will be good in the long term. It is ridiculous that it is impossible for young people starting their working career to buy even a small apartment in Stockholm today. Let alone rent one... We should have market rents. It will be painful for many households who will end up with bad debts, but that pain is outweighed by the fact that the housing market as a whole will become more accessible.

(Yes, I am an apartment owner myself. It will affect me negatively too. But I can take it.)

Prediction: - 20-30% in Stockholm for "bostadsrätter" by the end of 2012. Based on gut feeling, not on any hard statistics.

Update 2016: No way, it's just kept on going up, up, up! Prices have risen way faster than income for the last 15 years straight. There's a low supply/high demand situation in the bigger cities which still isn't abating. A crash would be good for Sweden long term. Let's see if one comes by 2020. I still believe it will happen.