Computers, handheld devices, wireless. All are evolving so fast now. Services like Google Maps (or hitta.se) are incredibly useful.
But we can't access them when we want to. Apple is showing where the problem is, first with iPhone (bigger screen, yay!) and now recently with iPad (even bigger screen, yay again!). But the iPad doesn't fit in your pocket. The iPhone does. So somewhere in between those two lies a limiting factor of screen size vs portability. Can't have both.
What about a foldable electronic-paper-type screen? That could solve the portability vs size issue, but it's still not good for notifications. Whenever I use my computer, it notifies me about a bunch of stuff: I get new mail, RSS feeds, Facebook comments, twits, Skype, whatever.
What if the foldable paper is combined with a little in-ear bluetooth gadget which goes Ping! when something interesting happens? That could work, it's simple enough, but it's still just a notification - it's not the information itself.
I think the only solution is glasses, just like the sci-fi guys have been saying for decades. There are already models out there for commercial use, but they're clunky. They need to be nearly as light as a pair of sunglasses. And their major advantage is of course that they support Augmented Reality, for example like the information accessible to the British police in Charles Stross novel "Halting State". We already have this kind of overlay e.g. in helmets for air force pilots. We've had it in "HUDs" in computer games for ages.
But that's just the screen part. How to input data? Before we get to a point where we can think words directly into hardware, which will probably take even longer, we'll need some other interface which involves fingers. Speech is imprecise and cumbersome; it's like using "vi" for editing: Now I'm telling the device what to do, now I'm just asking where the gluten-free bread is in the supermarket. It forces two contexts on the speaker and that's not user-friendly.
Maybe the Sixthsense idea of Pranav Mistry is a viable way forward. I really like his thinking. It's simple: A camera, a projector, and a mirror. And your own hands. If the projector gets useful enough it could potentially be a rival for glasses, as far as a screen goes.
Obstacles are:
- Miniaturization, as always. Whatever this is, it can't be cumbersome to wear.
- Energy: We need cheap, small, rechargeable energy sources for commercial use.
- Input interface: Either gestures, projected keyboard. They're both possible, the trick is to make them user-friendly enough for a mass market to bother learning the new paradigm.
- Economy: As always, the things must be cheap. Like a mobile phone or cheaper.
When will people interact with the Internet without monitors, keyboards, or mice in their everyday life? This will probably take a while... I'm guessing 2025. Will This Happen?
Update 2016: VR was the biggest topic at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona this year. Oculus Rift, Samsung, Google and Microsoft are all marketing VR/AR goggles. I believe they will hit the trough of disappointment one more time before taking off, but we are still on track for 2025!
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Bet taken! You are basically predicting that we will be able to skip keyboard/mouse/monitor by 2025 and there will be ubiquitous self-bio-monitoring by 2020 (“portable self-meter device which can give us constant feedback on our physical state,” where “physical state” could be assumed to be a set of variables that can effectively provide a warning when there is an imminent life threat.)
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that the first prediction will come true earlier than that, given the fast pace of development, say, around 2018, understanding that by that time whatever interfaces are found will have become affordable/popular.
The second one, on the other hand, might take some time, since it includes the “ubiquitous” requirement. I’d shift it to 2024, adding some years to your estimation.
I had actually given a lot of thought to what I think will happen after that. Assuming we don’t destroy ourselves, I am certain that in one point there will be total immersion in a virtual world, with a set of interfaces that monitors not only our bio variables but also our mood, emotions and even our thoughts, to the extent that they allow us to manipulate the virtual environment at will, as well as receive its sensorial inputs, without any physical interaction whatsoever. I also bet that the interfaces will include or even be based on the principles of neurofeedback. An optimistic guess (I believe) would be that such thing will become true by 2040 – hope that’s still on time for you to buy me (yet another) dinner
(Many people already exploit this concept, e.g. the guys who thought up The Matrix, but their virtual worlds are far too similar to the real world for my taste; they skip a lot of the implications of a “real” virtual immersion. Of course, a virtual world that looks and feels totally like the physical world could happen in a more distant future, but by that time reality will also be totally different from what it is today.)